Prediction Market Odds Calculator
Prediction market shares pay $1 if right, so price equals implied probability. Enter your own estimate and see whether the market is offering you an edge or charging you one.
Results (live)
Estimates only, not financial advice. All math runs in your browser; nothing you type leaves this page.
How it works
implied prob = share price
payout = stake ÷ price
EV = payout × your prob − stake
Worked example
Shares at $0.37 imply 37%. If you believe 45%, a $200 stake buys 540 shares paying $540, with +$43 expected value. Believe 30% and the same trade is −$38 EV.
FAQ
Why do prices differ from polls?
Markets aggregate money-weighted beliefs including information polls miss, and they also carry biases (favorites-longshot skew). Neither is oracle truth.
What eats returns here?
Spread, capital locked until resolution, and resolution risk on ambiguous questions. Cheap shares on vague markets are cheap for a reason.
Related calculators
Estimates only, not financial, tax or investment advice. Verify numbers against your exchange or a professional before acting.